TRACK: Good 3 RAIL: Out 2m
TRACK COMMENT: Recent pattern has been in strong favour of those close to the rail rounding the home turn and into the straight.
Race 1 – 2200m Sky Racing Open Handicap
Apprentice James Orman just could not get No.3 COL ‘N’ LIL to settle last start and made a hash of it by trying to nurse the horse at the back of the field (knowing that it was stepping from 1600m up to 2200m.) She just failed to peg back Perplexity in the sprint home and Orman has been swapped in favour of the 3kg claimer Emma Ljung. I’m giving this grey mare another chance here with just 51kg on her back and a run at the distance under her belt. No.1 Perplexity beat most of this field home in a similar race a fortnight ago but Jeff Lloyd was allowed to dictate on a red-hot leaders track that day. If the other jockeys don’t wake up to themselves, Lloyd will win on this again. No.5 Uno Five had every favour in the run when splitting Perplexity and Col ‘N’ Lil to grab second over this course last time. Meets the toppy 1kg better at the weights, but meets Col ‘N’ Lil 1.5kg worse after the claims.
TOP FOUR – 3. Col ‘N’ Lil, 1. Perplexity, 5. Uno Five , 4. Highly Gentle.
BETTING STRATEGY – 100 unit win bet on No.3 Col ‘N’Lil at $3.10 fixed with Ladbrokes.
Race 2 – 1110m A.M Giles & Co 2yo Open Handicap
Very open two-year-old race with little exposed form to work off. Moderate your bets or skip this one completely. No.1 BURN NOTICE is only runner to have won a race and comes up with the inside gate, which is crucial both here at Doomben and in two-year-old races generally. He won over 900m at the Gold Coast before being beaten 5.3L by Boom Shucka here a fortnight ago. No.14 The Last Kiss hasn’t been sighted at the official trials but is by Sebring out of early 2yo speedster Kiss Me Katy and genes, and huge early market support, say it will be an early runner. No.9 Heart Skipt A Beat was second on debut, 0.2L behind Brilliant Diva. Has horrible gate here however and will need to beat them out of the stalls and lead to be any hope. No.7 Mishani El Lobo has drawn well and steps up in grade after being pipped at Rockhampton on debut by Party Pardee.
TOP FOUR – 1. Burn Notice, 14. The Last Kiss, 9. Heart Skipt A Beat, 7. Mishani El Lobo.
BETTING STRATEGY – Small win bet (20 units or less) for interest on No.1 Burn Notice at $21 fixed with CrownBet. Save your big bets for later on.
Race 3 – 1050m Ag Designer Jeweller Open Handicap
No.2 MR FAVULOUS makes each-way appeal from barrier two. He is resuming after an easy barrier trial win and goes good fresh (7:2-2-0). I think he can tag old sparring partner No.1 Rocky King throughout and $5 fixed with Ladbrokes looks good shopping. Rocky King always takes catching and has come up with the rails draw. That will help him enormously, but I expect plenty of pressure in this race from out wide and I’m not real keen about the $2.80 fixed on offer early doors. No.11 Soldi Domani is the pick of the up and comers here, and resumes from a 25 week spell after a long campaign as a 3yo which saw him race against the best in the land. Meets older horses here but certainly cannot be discounted as a winning hope.
TOP FOUR – 2. Mr Favulous, 1. Rocky King, 11. Soldi Domani, 5. Lucky Meteor.
BETTING STRATEGY – 60 unit win bet on No.2 Mr Favulous at $5 best of the best with Ladbrokes. 40 unit boxed quinella on numbers 1,2,5,11.
Race 4 – 1600m Winning Edge Rs0mw Handicap
Interesting race with southern visitors No.9 Lord Coconuts and No.1 O’REILLY’S REVENGE meeting again with some moderate local opposition thrown in. Lord Coconuts has been sent north by Bjorn Baker after just finding Sydney opposition a tad too stiff. He hasn’t been beaten more than a length at his last three starts but is just finding it hard to stick his nose out on the line. He was second behind Balmain Boy in a 1600m at Warwick Farm on October 5, and O’Reilly’s Revenge finished fourth. I like the latter of the pair just based on price today. Opening quote of $2.50 fixed is short enough for Lord Coconuts, and $4.80 for O’Reilly’s Revenge is a touch of overs. I’m forgiving his last start fourth to Chillin With Dylan and think he will improve markedly with favours afforded by the inside draw. No.10 Nicked And Court has also drawn well and comes out of the same race won by Chillin With Dylan when 3.7L sixth. On her best form she could be right in the thick of the finish. No. 13 Scotti Be Gotti won a 1400m class one at the Gold Coast last start and should appreciate the step up in trip here.
TOP FOUR – 1. O’Reilly’s Revenge, 9. Lord Coconuts, 10. Nicked And Court, 13. Scotti Be Gotti.
BETTING STRATEGY –Take on the favourite with a 80 unit win bet on No.1 O’Reilly’s Revenge at $4.80 fixed with Ladbrokes. Save with a 20 unit quinella on 1 and 9.
Race 5 -1350m Carlton Mid 3yo Open Handicap
Very open race to start what is a tricky quaddie. No.1 Man Of His Word was ultra impressive in winning over this course last start in a QTIS bonus race when downing early leader No.3 Dandy One by 2.3L on October 31. Awkward barrier again and he might have to get right back in the field with the big weight which is a worry the way the track has played of late. However, if he’d drawn a decent gate you wouldn’t be getting $3.60 fixed. Now the scratching are out he comes in to gate 11 and won’t be so far off them. No.10 Hesitation was 4L fourth in the same race but was checked in the early stages and had to go right back to last. Has drawn the inside here and might be able to sit closer. No.15 OPINIONATED was nailed by No.12 Catenaccio when resuming as odds on favourite at the Sunshine Coast, then placed fourth to No.2 In His Stride over 1200m here on Nov 7. Gets to 1350m for the first time with a postage stamp weight and should get a lovely run from gate two. She is the value bet of the race to my eye.
TOP FOUR – 15. Opinionated, 1. Man Of His Word, 3. Dandy One, 10. Hesitation.
BETTING STRATEGY – 60 units win bet on No.15 Opinionated at $7.50 fixed. 40 units win bet on the likely leader No.3 Dandy One at $9 fixed.
Race 6 – 1200m Listed Tattersall’s Arcade Classic Set Weights with Penalties
Sydney raider No.11 FRILL SEEKING gets in with no weight and from barrier two should get every favour in the run. The Matthew Smith-trained runner placed 0.5L fourth in the Group 3 The Nivison at Randwick behind Nayeli over 1200m before placing 0.7L fourth to Alart in last start at Rosehill in a BM85 Saturday race over 1200m. No.2 Golden Falls resumes and has drawn the rails. Hasn’t been seen since winning a 1400m BM75 race at Rosehill by 1.3L over Grand Punto when blocked for a run in the straight. Goes well fresh and if it gets the breaks along the inside it will be very hard to hold out late. No.4 Fine Mist has been sent north after a 0.8L 2nd to Religify at Rosehill over 1100m on Oct 31. She too will be looking for a spot on the speed and has senior rider Robbie Fradd to help her cause. No.9 Notonyourlife is good value at $21 and should be thrown in multiples as a knockout player.
TOP FOUR – 11. Frill Seeking , 2. Golden Falls, 4. Fine Mist, 9. Notonyourlife.
BETTING STRATEGY – 70 units win bet on No.11 Frill Seeking at $6.50 fixed. 30 units boxed quinella on numbers 2,4,9,11.
Race 7 – 1600m Listed Tattersall’s Recognition Stakes
No.8 Traveston Girl resumed with a gutsy 0.5L third over the unsuitably short 1200m behind Adorabubble before heading south to Flemington for a creditable 4.8L fifth to Scarlett Billows in the Group 3 Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes (1400m). Gets up to the mile here and should take some catching from barrier six. Admittedly No.9 Blue Lion got every favour last start but it still got the job done to defeat Teronado in a 1615m Open Handicap here on Oct 31. Has drawn well again and no reason it won’t make it three on end if the favourite is off her game. No.7 Victory Hotel resumed with a narrow win over No.1 Jumbo Prince last time and usually goes well second-up too. Wide draw is the worry and early luck will be needed for her to slot into a winning position in the run. No.5 Shotover River resumes over a mile and will no doubt be better suited over further later on. I think the move to race him here first-up at the mile is due to the fact that he will still have plenty of residual fitness after his last staying campaign, and that he may just be able to go with them fresh. If he does that from barrier one he is a knockout player for sure.
TOP FOUR – 8. Traveston Girl, 9. Blue Lion, 7. Victory Hotel, 1. Jumbo Prince.
BETTING STRATEGY – 80 unit win bet No.8 Traveston Girl at $3.50 fixed. 20 unit standout quinella with 8 / 1,5,7,9.
Race 8 – 1110m Singapore Airlines Rs0mw Handicap
Loads of scratching this morning have changed this race completely. Very hard race to dissect and you could go as wide as your budget will allow in the quaddie. No.5 Tralfaz is an on-pacer who would have dearly loved to draw a softer gate. Where he lands in the run is anyone’s guess , although with the scratching out he now jumps from gate 10. No.9 BRITAILA KATE has the advantage of the inside draw if she can use it. She was tardy to begin last start and then copped a few checks in the straight and wasn’t fully tested when 2.3L fifth to Espitiru over 1050m here on Nov 7. No.20 Quelle Liaison jumped better and was allowed to lead last start when winning a BM70 race over 1050m here on Nov 3. She won’t be leading by herself here, but she does have barrier 3 and should be with No.1 Shadow Force near the rail.
TOP FOUR – 9. Britaila Kate, 20. Quelle Liason, 1. Shadow Force, 5. Tralfaz
BETTING STRATEGY - 60 unit win bet on No.9 Britaila Kate at $5 fixed with Ladbrokes. 40 unit win bet on No.20 Quelle Liaison at $12 fixed.
BEST BET – Race 7 No.8 Traveston Girls at $3.50 fixed with Ladbrokes.
BEST VALUE – Race 6 No.11 Frill Seeking at $6.50 fixed with Ladbrokes.
QUADDIE STRATEGY –
Leg 1) 1,2,3,10,15
Leg 2) 2,4,9,11
Leg 3) 8
Leg 4) 1,5,9,14,20
$100 will get you 100%