Not a great race but think the debutant NO.2 O'LOUGHLIN offers a little bit of value on the back of a good trial here at Hobart two weeks ago. Jumped nicely and settled well in transit before quickening when asked to. Was doing his best work over the final 50 metres, so from the nice draw he'll get all the favours. No.10 Off The Grid made excellent ground when dropping back to the 1200m at Launceston two weeks ago. She did so against the pattern, which gives plenty of validity to the performance. Would like to see Toker more positive early, if so he can win. No.5 Quiet Wonder has a raft of gear changes in order to spark her up. She was only fair here at Hobart two weeks ago but this is as poor a race she's been entered into. Should be at her peak and its getting close to D-day. No.4 Geegees Muscleman is third-up and ready to peak. I like the quick turnaround for him. Must include in all exotics.
Back O'Loughlin 50 units each way.
NO.3 MATIANO looks mighty hard to beat going off what he did here a week ago over the 1400m. Was pressured in the lead early, which set it up for handy winner (midfield, four pairs back) to really come home over the top. No.8 Gee Gees Cool Gal just can't get a win on the board but is racing well. She'll box seat behind our top pick and get every chance over the final 400 metres. Slight query at the trip though, in my humble opinion, best efforts have been over 1200m. No.4 Victory Medal will probably look to be very prominent early as per his style. He's had 20 cracks at trying to break his duck, so hard to go in with much confidence. With that in mind, he'll be an improver. He was first-up for 10 months here a week ago. No.1 Buzzy Wuzzy Woo looks to be a blow-out chance if they go hell for leather up front. Thought he hit the line okay from an impossible position at Hobart over 1100 metres. The extra trip suits.
Back Matiano 100 units to win.
The in-form horse of Tasmania is NO.2 SILVER BOLT and I can't come up with a reason as to why he won't be winning again. Gets in beautifully with 56.5kgs after the claim from Boris Thornton, loves the track, draws perfectly and flies over the 1200m. Tick, tick and tick. No.7 Bideford was very good behind Admiral at Launceston over the 1200m three weeks ago, usually that form would be good enough to win this but he comes up against Silver Bolt and has drawn a touch awkwardly. Needs luck in running – if he gets it he's a big chance. No.8 Savoire Step has matured into a nice horse over the last six months. Beat a few handy ones (in dominant fashion) late last year and gets in fresh with 53kgs. Will be the one in the box seat from barrier 4. No.4 Concrete Johnny was good returning when pressured in the lead over 1200m. If he gets a softer time of it, he'll give plenty of cheek and he certainly will strip fitter today.
Back Silver Bolt (100 units) to win.
Leg 1) 1, 3, 4, 8
Leg 2) 1, 2, 3, 4
Leg 3) 1, 2, 4, 7
Leg 4) 2, 4, 7, 8
$100 = 40%