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Great edition this year and I just cant go past NO.4 HOT DIPPED on the back of his brilliant performance here over the 1220m a week ago, stalked the leaders and finished running 1.11.30 home 33.76/22.80/11.56. They just dont run those numbers as 2yos, was 5 lengths quicker overall than the older horses later in the card. He'll stalk the speed again today and if he handles the quick turnaround, which McShane seems to think he will, then he should be winning. No.3 Gee Gee Double Dee has done nothing wrong in stringing a picket fence together so far but I have some concerns about the way she won at Hobart two weeks ago, just looked a tired horse at this point of her prep which is concerning. If she can bounce back to her form of late last year then she'll be hard to beat but at this point I see her as a bit of a sitting duck for our on top pick. No.8 Hussy's Glow was good making ground over 1000m at Morphettville on debut, should get the right run today and 1200m suits. No.5 Mariahs Magic boxed on well behind Gee Gee Double Dee in the Elwick Stakes, like the extra 100m for her too.
Best horse wins it, backing No.4 Hot Dipped to win (100 units)
Very open Cup this year, going with a bit of value in the Victorian NO.7 SHOCKEMOHLE. His effort over 2000m at Caulfield a few weeks ago was very good. He jumped well and sat on a good gallop and was only collared late in what proved a swoopers race. He draws to find cover early and with the sting out of the track he will go very close, gives every indication that he'll relish the 2400m at this point of his prep. No.1 Up Cups was a terrific winner of the Hobart Cup, he made significant ground late to win going away from them on the line. If the inside chops out and they're able to make runs out wide then the awkward alley might not be an issue. Needs to slot in midfield three-deep with cover early though but otherwise hard to fault him even with the big weight. No.2 Geegees Goldengirl is racing so consistently, was probably unlucky not to go closer in the Hobart Cup after Carr dropped the whip at the top of the straight. She'll be the one with the right run in transit and is in well relative weights. No.6 Player One was another hitting the line strongly in the Hobart Cup, Newitt needs to get off the fence from the inside draw but if the speed is genuine early he'll be motoring late, appreciates the cut out of the ground too.
Shockemohle (50 units) each-way
No shock with our toppy being NO.1 ADMIRAL, what more do I need to say? Just did what he had to do in the Thomas Lyons and progression to the mile/meeting rivals at WFA is again his domian. That 2 length finish off Wandjina in the G1 Australian Guineas would suggest he'd be pretty hard to beat down south in anything going forward, as has been the case of late. No.5 Powercharged made really good ground to give Admiral a slight 'scare' in the Lyons, first time at the trip but the way he ran through the line there suggests to me he'll go very well again. No.7 Rose Of Innocence is seven weeks between runs when disappointing in the Devonport Cup, has trialled twice of late over the 1400m and has looked good doing so. A return to her form from the middle of 2015 will have her competitive and a good blowout hope. No.2 Streetwise Savoire has failed when getting out to a trip, back to 1600m is his go but maybe not against this opposition
Look for a bit of value in the quinella, Admiral & Powercharged (100 units)
Leg 1) 1,2,7
Leg 2) 1,2,5,6,7,13
Leg 3) 1
Leg 4) 1,3,6,7,9,10
$108 = 100%