MOONEE VALLEY FRIDAY
Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 5 metres
Track comment: Rail in the true spot last meeting. If good enough, on pace runners could have an edge.
Race 1: Maiden, 1600 metres
No. 8 DIZZY DAYS is the value runner. She just keeps getting closer to a win as the distances extend. Despite some wayward racing at Kilmore last start, she still ran on strongly for second to the promising Svetla's Star. No. 9 Intrigo is the obvious one to beat. She gets first use of the track from the inside gate and ran well for second in a similar race here on October 30. She over-raced a bit early and was inclined to lay in at the turns. The rail will help her. No.6 Aberfeldy is consistent and ran fourth in that race. No. 2 Magnormous is very fit and will be competitive again.
Top four: 8 Dizzy Days, 9 Intrigo, 4 Aberfeldy, 2 Magnormous
Betting strategy: Stake No. 8 one the win by three the place. Quinella: 8,9.
Race 2 - 3YO Benchmark 64, 1523m
This is a tricky race with many different form lines colliding. The main two at value could be No. 2 PATCHE GIFT and No. 5 Flying Spark. Patche Gift, from the Weir stable, was slightly checked four times early in his race here on Oxtober 30 and looked reluctant to race in between horses. The blinkers go on and the extra distance suits. Craig Williams stays with Flying Spark who drops back from contesting a listed race during the Flemington Cup carnival. It was a good effort for fifth behind Weir's Palentino and O'Shea's Demonstrate. The best of the last-start maiden winners look to be No. 1 Gervais who has been finishing off shorter races very strongly and No. 4 Hardern who will benefit from the claim for young Moloney.
Top four: 2 Patche Gift, 5 Flying Spark, 1 Gervais, 4 Hardern
Betting strategy: Back No 2 to win. Save on No. 5. Box quinella 1,2,4,5.
Race 3 - Benchmark 84, 3000m
Chris Waller has scratched the obvious winner Four Carat to go with No. 2 SOVIET COURAGE who has won up to 2600 metres in Australia and has a far higher rating than any of his rivals. He will be very hard to beat. No. 7 Packing Empire gave the favourite Master Zephyr a real run for the money earlier this month. No. 3 Spanish Love rises sharply in distance but certainly has the ability to be in the finish. No. 4 Up The Creek and No. 5 Loncava are fit, consistent and will both run the 3000 metres.
Top four: 2 Soviet Courage, 7 Packing Empire, 3 Spanish Love, 4 Up The Creek
Betting strategy: Back No. 2 to win. Quinella 2 mainly with 7, then with with 3,4,5.
Race 4 - Benchmark 64, 1200m
No.1 ANGRY GEE is a first-up winner and trialled most impressively at Cranbourne in preparation for his return. The claim for Moloney eases the weight burden a little. Same with No.2 Star Impulse who did not have much galloping room in a similar race on October 30. And she will be fitter for that first-up run. No. 7 Jacoman has been freshened, is well drawn and will be strong at the end of the 1200 metres. No. 9 Social Media is fit, quick and drops in grade. No. 8 Burning Mountain was quite impressive in the maiden win but has to jump to Benchmark 64.
Top four: 1 Angry Gee, 2 Star Impulse, 7 Jacoman, 9 Social Media
Betting strategy: Stake No.1 one to win by three the place. Box quinella 1,2,7,9.
Race 5 - Benchmark 64, 1200m
No.3 THE SPITFIRE has been freshened since failing over 1600 metres. He drops back to 1200 metres and two of his three wins have been at this trip. He has the inside gate and a 3kg claim for Dylan Dunn. He will be each way value in a race of many chances. No. 7 Ionlythinkofyou returned with an excellent run at Cranbourne, is also well drawn and has a 3kg claim too. No. 8 Zambezi Diamond is an on-pacer who drops back a little in grade and looks well placed. Lightly raced New Zealander No. 5 Rock My Soul is in great form and has blinkers on for the first time. No. 2 Inkulu is a promising galloper resuming from a spell tonight. Those two are drawn out a bit wider than the other major hopes.
Top four: 3 The Spitfire, 7 Ionlythinkofyou, 8 Zambezi Diamond, 5 Rock My Soul
Betting strategy: One the win by three the place No.3 The Spitfire.
Race 6 - 55 second challenge Benchmark 78, 955m
No. 2 ROUGH JUSTICE is yet to miss a place first up or at this track. He should add to what looks like a lucrative night for Craig Williams. No. 4 Barcode also resumes, won three straight before going for a spell and will be hitting the line hard at the of the 955 dash. No. 3 Beau Rada has the natural speed to use the favourable gate. No. 6 Steel Trigger is a reliable regular in these races without winning.
Top four: 2 Rough Justice, 4 Barcode, 3 Beau Rada, 6 Steel Trigger
Betting strategy: Back No. 2 to win.
Race 7 - Fillies & Mares Benchmark 70, 1000m
No. 1 BELLE MELBA is not only suited by the drop back in grade but also getting back from the 1200 to 1000 metres. No. 3 One Lucky Gal finished hard for an impressive first-up win in similar class against males at Mornington. No. 2 Down The Hatch is a first-up winner and trialled well recently behind two very smart performers at Cranbourne. Those three are all drawn well. No.10 Miss Idyliic could not handle the wet track last start and is suited in this. No. 5 Fascinating Lady is pretty smart and should sprint well fresh.
Top four: 1 Belle Melba, 3 One Lucky Gal, 2 Down The Hatch, 10 Miss Idyllic
Betting strategy: Back No.1 to win. Quinella 1 with 2,3,5,11.
Race 8 - Benchmark 78, 2040m
No. 14 War Point, the second emergency, sneaks into the field and should be the one to beat. He ran on solidly in a similar race here at his last start and should now be at peak fitness. He has the blinkers off and a visor on. No. 12 Trendsetter is a genuine improver who can race on speed and give a good kick. No. 3 Harveys True Heart and No. 6 Straight Jacket are both down in grade after commendable performances in country cups. No. 5 Sir Berus is stepping up to the trip for the first time but is racing well enough to be rated highly. He also has the inside gate to help him get a good passage.
Top four: 14 War Point, 5 Sir Berus, 12 Trendsetter, 6 Straight Jacket
Betting strategy: Back No.14 to win. Quinella 14 with 3,5,6,12.
Race 9 - Fillies & Mares Benchmark 70, 1600m
No. 11 MONOGRAM could be the one from left field in this. She has been running on strongly in shorter races in Sydney and after the claim for Moloney will be getting 4.5kg from the top two, favourites No. 2 Yellen and No. 1 Swing Sensation, both of whom are coming off decisive wins. They will be most competitive again. No. 4 Kiwi Kate began sluggishly here at her latest run, settled a clear last and then was pushed very wide. Her previous win was impressive. No. 3 Samertha Heights is promising and should keep improving this preparation.
Top four: 11 Monogram, 2 Yellen, 1 Swing Sensation, 4 Kiwi Kate
Betting strategy: Something the win by three the place No.11. Box quinella 1,2,3,4,11.
We will know our fate early with a one-outer in the first leg.
$125 for $1.